A new study from the World Economic Forum (WEF) and management consultancy Kearney has revealed that global demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is poised to reach 17 million tonnes per annum by 2030, equivalent to about 5% of total jet fuel consumption worldwide.
Meeting this requirement could necessitate capital investment of between $19 billion and $45 billion, depending on the blend of technologies adopted.
Currently, global SAF production capacity sits at around 4.4 million tonnes a year, with a further 6.9 million tonnes of capacity due online by 2030. However, an additional 5.8 million tonnes would be needed to meet anticipated demand, requiring urgent investment decisions by 2026.
Launched under the WEF’s Airports of Tomorrow initiative, the Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels report pinpoints 10 “enablers” that could help scale production, calling on governments, SAF producers, and the investment community to intensify collaboration. From research grants and multilateral development bank support to long-term offtake agreements and tolling models, the study underscores how varied financing structures can help de-risk SAF projects and attract both public and private capital.
Crucially, experts say stable policy environments, feedstock security, and technology breakthroughs will all play a part in making SAF more investable. “If we are serious about hitting SAF targets by 2030,” said Kearney’s Global Sustainability Director, Claudia Galea, “it is essential that producers, governments, and investors work together to de-risk production and ensure scale.”
Despite the growing urgency around decarbonising air travel, funding new SAF refineries often proves difficult. According to the WEF’s Aviation Decarbonisation Lead, Giorgio Parolini, traditional lenders can be reluctant to finance SAF projects due to their novelty and reliance on unproven technologies. To meet 2030 climate goals, producers and policymakers must provide assurances that SAF facilities will be viable long-term investments.
New financing tools such as green bonds tied to SAF production and tailored risk guarantees could be instrumental in closing the funding gap. In the face of mounting pressure to cut aviation emissions, the industry’s ability to draw on innovative financing techniques will likely prove central to achieving meaningful environmental progress.